Covid 19 Spread Modelling

This page contains details of how SDMA requires the support of data scientists to help in modeling the spread of Covid 19 in Kerala.

Goal: To create a data driven decision-making framework for public authorities to actively intervene and manage the spread of COVID19 outbreak.

COVID-19 cases will soon explode into unprecedented levels and we need to flatten the epidemic curve to reduce the burden on our current healthcare system. In order to facilitate effective response, we require our data-science volunteers to help us model the epidemic curve for COVID-19.

"To minimize the impact of the coming pandemic, we need to slow its spread and thereby keep our healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. Through aggressive measures we can flatten out the epidemic curve, keeping the number of people simultaneously infected at a low enough level to be manageable." - Carl Bergstorm, Professor of Biology, University of Washington

“If you look at the curves of outbreaks, they go big peaks, and then come down. What we need to do is flatten that down.” - Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

Tentative Modelling Task List

Dataset Specs (In Progress)

Requirements for data collection from each location for modelling purpose

  1. Mandatory Patient Data to be collected while admitting

    1. Day of occurence of symptoms

    2. Admission date

    3. Dates of exposure / infection

    4. Severity of condition - Critical/Moderate/Mild

    5. Dates of outcome: death / recovery

    6. Metadata on patient: age, gender, location, occupation, etc

    7. Contact data: exposure (who infected you?) and Contact tracing (who could you have infected?)

For Modelling Epidemic Curve

  • Data collection need to be done in this format

  1. Current Hospital Capacity Data

    1. Require current available hostpital beds in each location

    2. Require current available ICU capacity for each location

  2. Estimate of supplies needed to treat one person in

    1. Critical condition who needs an ICU bed

    2. Moderate condition who needs a hospital bed

    3. Mild or Stay-at-home condition

    4. List of items require to treat a person

Data Scientist Reading Resources (In Progress)



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